2020 Census Net Coverage Error, by race / ethnicity
Though the 2020 Census count was better than anticipated, undercount problems persisted or grew worse for Black, Hispanic, and other race groups.
Net coverage error by race and ethnicity, U.S.
Percent of under- and overcounts, 2010 and 2020 Census PES data
The 2020 Census faced many challenges as census-takers dealt with the pandemic along with climate disasters across the country. Census data has historically undercounted communities of color, with gaps widening this year for some groups. The Census Bureau’s first assessment of accuracy for racial groups, the Post-Enumeration Survey, found that, in 2020, undercounts for Black or African American people remained high at -3.3%. American Indians/Alaska Natives were undercounted by about -1%, but a subgroup — those who live on reservations — had the largest undercount at -5.6%. For Hispanic communities, the undercount more than tripled from -1.5% in 2010 to -4.9% in 2020, and for those of “some other race,” undercounts increased from -1.6% to -4.3%. Importantly, the Census Bureau’s second assessment, the Demographic Analysis, to be released later this year, may reveal even larger disparities. These undercounts reduce political representation and funding for affected communities nationwide. The reduction in funding is particularly concerning as census numbers set the amounts for federal resources such as food, housing, education, and medical programs over the next 10 years. At least $1.5 trillion in federal funding is distributed each year based on this data.1
In response to these persistent undercounts of communities of color, the Census Bureau has committed to researching methods for overcoming these undercounts in annual estimates going forward. To do so effectively, the Bureau will need to look at data available from states and localities that is known to better target undercounted groups.2 These efforts to improve annual population estimates will be critical for rightsizing federal funding flows for the remainder of the decade.
“Minority undercount in census will likely lead to lower political representation, big federal funding losses”. Joyner. Atlanta Civic Circle. March, 2022. https://atlantaciviccircle.org/2022/03/25/minority-undercount-in-census-will-likely-lead-to-lower-political-representation-big-federal-funding-losses/
“Local Administrative Records and Their Use in the Challenge Program and Decennial”. U.S. Government Accountability Office. February, 2013. https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-13-269.pdf