Hospital Capacity vs. Reporting Frequency
Although hospitals in 6 Southern states are already more full than the 2019 national average, 5 of those states have decreased the frequency at which they alert the public of new cases.
State frequency of reporting new Covid cases by hospital capacity
As of October 15, 2021
Sources: HealthData.gov COVID-19 Reported Patient Impact and Hospital Capacity by State and Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) GitHub *GA is also no longer reporting on official holidays.
Note: The average hospital occupancy rate in 2019, pre-pandemic, was 76%.1
A critical reason for Americans to get vaccinated and wear masks is to prevent hospitalizations, and by extension keep local hospitals from being overwhelmed. This is especially important heading into what may be an active season for other respiratory illnesses such as the flu and RSV whose rates were down in 2020 due to public health measures to reduce Covid exposures.2 8 Southern states (AL, FL, GA, KY, NC, SC, VA, and WV) are entering this season with occupancy rates at or above the 2019 average. The intensive care unit (ICU) in Grady Memorial Hospital in Atlanta, Georgia, has been at 100% capacity over the last 12 months, compared to about 70% prior to the pandemic.3
As hospitals approach maximum capacity, communities should carefully monitor Covid case rates and implement policies to reduce transmission to avoid having to make the hard choices of rationing care. In Alabama, a patient with a heart condition died because he was unable to receive medical care, even after the hospital contacted 43 other hospitals nearby.3
Fortunately, AR, AL, and WV are all once again publishing data on Covid case rates daily. GA, KY, NC, and SC are down to publishing only on weekdays and most concerning is Florida, which is publishing only once a week. Given the high infectivity rate of the Delta variant, case rates could easily get out of hand within two reporting cycles, resulting in overwhelmed hospitals and excess deaths. With a deadly race between viral variants and hospitalization capacity, timely data-tracking and transparency by local governments will be crucial to support mid-course corrections in public health responses as conditions continue to rapidly change.
“Toward a better understanding of hospital occupancy rates”. Phillip, Mullner, and Andes. Health Care Financing Review Review. 1984. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4191350/
“Flu Cases Decline Dramatically This Season”. Shapiro. Hopkins Medicine. March, 2021. https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/news/articles/flu-cases-decline-dramatically-this-season
“‘Never-ending nightmare’: The hospitals where the ICU occupancy stayed high”. Ramos. NBC News. September, 2021. https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/never-ending-nightmare-hospitals-where-icu-hospitalizations-stayed-high-n1280318