U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates
The Census Bureau’s annual population estimates can make up for some problems in the 2020 Census but budget and staff are down.
U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates Program
Full-time equivalent staff and annual budget (2022 dollars, in millions)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Intercensal Estimates budgets, as compiled by Ron Prevost, Ph.D., Research Professor, Massive Data Institute, Georgetown University. Notes: Years represent fiscal years. FTE= Full-time equivalent.
Each year, the Census Bureau produces a series of population estimates through the Population Estimates Program, an update of the once-every-ten-year population counts for states, cities and counties. These estimates are used in data products like the American Community Survey and help determine the distribution of $1.5 trillion in population-based federal aid.1
Improving the Population Estimates Program could mitigate issues in the 2020 Census, which undercounted people of color, the very young, and the population of 6 states, according to the Census Bureau’s own measures of accuracy. (Populations of 8 states, white people, and older Americans were overcounted.) These measures found the 2020 Census missed close to 5% of people of Hispanic origin (triple the rate in 2010), children up to age 4 (the most in 50 years), and residents of Tennessee and Arkansas.2 These miscounts leave some communities receiving less than their fair share of population-based funding.
Census Bureau Director Robert Santos has appointed a team to investigate improving the estimates.3 Professor Ron Prevost of the Massive Data Institute at Georgetown, a member of the Census Scientific Advisory Committee, researched one potential obstacle: The estimates budget, down 20% since 2003, and staffing levels, down 33%.
“Counting for Dollars 2020: The Role of the Decennial Census in the Geographic Distribution of Federal Funds”. The George Washington Institute of Public Policy. April, 2020. https://gwipp.gwu.edu/counting-dollars-2020-role-decennial-census-geographic-distribution-federal-funds
“Census Bureau Releases Estimates of Undercount and Overcount in the 2020 Census. U.S. Census Bureau. March, 2022. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2022/2020-census-estimates-of-undercount-and-overcount.html
“Briefing on the Base Evaluation and Research Team”. Hartley, Perry. U.S. Census Bureau. https://www2.census.gov/about/partners/cac/sac/meetings/2022-09/presentation-briefing-on-base-evaluation-and-research-team.pdf
