Job Growth
Monthly job growth averaged 450,000 in the first half of 2022. The U.S. is just 524,000 jobs shy of the Feb 2020 pre-pandemic peak.
Total jobs by month, U.S.
Jan 2000 - Jun 2022
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Data for May 2022 and June 2022 are preliminary.
Change in jobs by state
May 2022 compared to February 2020
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Seasonally adjusted. Data for Apr 2022 and May 2022 are preliminary.
While almost 22 million jobs were lost when Covid hit, they have now, some two years later, been largely recouped. In contrast, the Great Recession caused a loss of more than 8 million jobs, which took more than four years to recoup.
While the nation still has 524,000 fewer jobs than at its pre-Covid peak in February 2020, enough people have dropped out of the labor force that the June 2022 unemployment rate of 3.6% is on par with the pre-Covid low.1 Since Covid hit, workers have retired in record numbers (Quits Rates), and others have had to quit jobs due to lack of child care (Child Care Disruptions). Moreover, an estimated 1.6 million workers are sidelined each month because of Long Covid symptoms — a dynamic that may be a large, but poorly tracked, factor in the labor shortage.1 Employers have responded with wage increases (up 5% compared to one year ago) but it’s not clear these increases are enough for sidelined workers to pay for needed child and elder care — particularly when wage increases have not kept up with inflation, which is up 9.1% compared to last June.2,3
The economy is starting to cool, however, as inflation and rising interest rates are reducing consumer spending and a few large companies have already announced layoffs.4 But the summer months are a time when many women leave the labor force to care for their children during school closures. Close to 1 million women may leave the workforce temporarily over the summer, which may counterbalance declining jobs, and the labor market may continue to churn.5
Among Southern states, 6 have more jobs as of May 2022 than they did at their pre-pandemic February 2020 level. SC is up 0.6%, AR is up 0.9%, TN is up 2%, NC is up 2.3%, and FL and GA are up 2.5%. But 5 Southern states still have fewer jobs than in February 2020. Most notably, LA has 4.2% fewer jobs.
“Is ‘long Covid’ worsening the labor shortage?” Bach. Brookings. January, 2022. https://www.brookings.edu/research/is-long-covid-worsening-the-labor-shortage/
“Table 1. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. city average, by expenditure category”. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. June, 2022. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.t01.htm
“Wage Growth Tracker”. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. July, 2022. https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker
“Three questions for the labor market’s near future”. Henry-Nickie, Barr, and Seo. Brookings. June, 2022. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2022/06/17/three-questions-for-the-labor-markets-near-future/
“The Summer Drop in Female Employment”. Price, Wasserman. June, 2022. https://www.brendanmichaelprice.com/research/working/PriceWasserman-SummerDrop.pdf
