Excess deaths

From March 2020 through Jan 2022, Covid directly caused 923,000 deaths and contributed to an additional 338,000 excess deaths beyond expected levels.

Excess deaths, Covid and non-Covid, U.S.

Deaths above expected levels by week, Feb 29, 2020 - Jan 29, 2022

Source: CDC

Deaths in the U.S. spiked in 2020, resulting in an increase of 22.9% between March 2020 and January 2021, a stark change from previous annual increases of 2.5% or less.¹ And in 2021, Covid continued its devastating toll. As of this writing, the country is nearing 1 million Covid-related deaths.

For every 3 known Covid deaths, there has been 1 additional excess death. Early in the pandemic, health care providers noticed their usual patients, fearful of Covid, canceling care for cancer treatment, orthopedic issues, chronic disease, and other documented illnesses.^2,3,4 New studies show additional previously hidden effects of the pandemic. The Journal of the American Medical Association released a study that found that alcohol-related deaths increased by 25.9% from 2019 to 2020.⁵ By contrast, alcohol-related deaths only increased by about 2% annually from 1999 to 2017.⁶ Moreover, the study indicates an increase in drug overdose deaths related to alcohol abuse (Drug Overdose Deaths). Deaths from vehicle crashes have also spiked, increasing by 5.1% from 2019 to 2020, and then by 12% from 2020 to 2021.⁷ Related, preliminary data shows that pedestrian fatalities have also escalated, increasing by 17% from 2020 to 2021, though there is significant variation by state.⁸ Experts believe that a number of these spikes are a result of poor mental health and the lack of care options across the nation (Mental Health Providers).^9,10 As the federal government shifts its focus to reducing only severe Covid cases and deaths, the risk grows of an escalating number of long Covid cases with debilitating effects (Long Covid).^11,12,13

1. “Excess Deaths From COVID-19 and Other Causes in the US, March 1, 2020, to January 2, 2021”. Woolf, Chapman, Sabo, et al. JAMA Network. April, 2021. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/2778361

2. “Patients with heart attacks, strokes and even appendicitis vanish from hospitals”. Bernstein, Sellers. The Washington Post. April, 2020. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/patients-with-heart-attacks-strokes-and-even-appendicitis-vanish-from-hospitals/2020/04/19/9ca3ef24-7eb4-11ea-9040-68981f488eed_story.html

3. “With cancer screenings dropping during pandemic, Carroll County medical professionals urging patients to reschedule”. Conaway. Carroll County Times. October, 2020. https://www.baltimoresun.com/maryland/carroll/news/cc-cancer-screening-during-pandemic-20201021-7i5fzg4hbfbh3jnqjsftbbusfy-story.html

4. “Health crisis looming inside a health crisis: People are avoiding going to the doctor”. Glionna. Los Angeles Times. July, 2020. https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-07-29/coronavirus-people-avoid-visits-to-doctor

5. “Alcohol-Related Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic”. White, Castle, Powell, et al. JAMA Network. March, 2022. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2790491

6. “Using Death Certificates to Explore Changes in Alcohol-Related Mortality in the United States, 1999-2017”. White, Castle, Hingson, and Powell. Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research. January, 2020. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/acer.14239

7.   “Early Estimate of Motor Vehicle Traffic Fatalities for the First 9 Months (January–September) of 2021”. U.S. Department of Transportation. February, 2022.  https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/813240

8. “Pedestrian Traffic Fatalities by State”. Petraglia, Macek. Governors Highway Safety Association. April, 2022. https://www.ghsa.org/sites/default/files/2022-04/Pedestrian%20Traffic%20Fatalities%20by%20State%20January%20-%20June%202021%20Preliminary%20Data_0.pdf

9. “U.S. alcohol-related deaths hit highest rate in decades during coronavirus pandemic, study shows“. Bever. The Washington Post. March, 2022. https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2022/03/23/alcohol-related-deaths-pandemic/

10. “Alcohol-Related Deaths Spiked During the Pandemic, a Study Shows”. Rabin. The New York Times. March, 2022. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/22/health/alcohol-deaths-covid.html

11. “COVID-19 Integrated County View”. CDC. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view?list_select_state=all_states&list_select_county=all_counties&data-type=CommunityLevels&null=CommunityLevels

12. Email Communications with Dr. William Pewen. April, 2022.

13. “America Is About to Test How Long ‘Normal’ Can Hold”. Wu. The Atlantic. https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2022/03/next-covid-variant-surge-strategy/627597/?utm_medium=social&utm_term=2022-03-23T19%3A58%3A04&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=edit-promo&utm_campaign=the-atlantic