2020 Census Net Coverage Error, by race / ethnicity
Undercount problems persisted or grew worse for Black, Hispanic, and other race groups in the 2020 Census count.
Net coverage error by race and ethnicity, U.S.
Percent of under- and overcounts, 2010 and 2020 Census PES data
Source: Census Bureau: Post-Enumeration Survey (PES). *Statistically significant change from 2010 Census PES data.
Census data has historically undercounted communities of color, with gaps widening in the 2020 Census count for some groups. The Census Bureau’s first assessment of accuracy for racial groups, the Post-Enumeration Survey, found that, in 2020, undercounts for Black or African American people remained high at -3.3%. American Indians/Alaska Natives were undercounted by about -1%, but a subgroup — those who live on reservations — had the largest undercount at -5.6%. For Hispanic communities, the undercount more than tripled from -1.5% in 2010 to -4.9% in 2020, meaning that 1 in 20 Hispanic persons were missed.1 And for those of “some other race,” undercounts increased from -1.6% to -4.3%. For the first time, Asian communities were overcounted by 2.62%. But experts and advocates worry that the overcount masks the large variations amongst Asian ethnic subgroups.2
The Post-Enumeration Survey results by state that were recently released found that 4 Southern states had the most significant undercounts in 2020: AR at -5.0%, TN at -4.8%, MS at -4.1%, and FL at -3.5%.3 Experts highlight that 5 of the 6 undercounted states also have growing populations of racial and ethnic diversity, indicating a possible relationship between the two.4,5 Experts further note that rural counties were also likely undercounted and lack of trust in government is a factor.4
These undercounts reduce both political representation and funding for affected communities nationwide. The reduction in funding is particularly concerning as census numbers set the amounts for federal resources that will be provided for such areas as food, housing, education, and medical programs over the next 10 years. At least $1.5 trillion in federal funding is distributed each year based on this data.1 Efforts to improve annual population estimates will be critical for rightsizing federal funding flows for the remainder of the decade.
“Key facts about the quality of the 2020 census”. Cohn, Passel. Pew Research Center. June, 2020. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/06/08/key-facts-about-the-quality-of-the-2020-census/
“Experts: Asian population overcount masks community nuances”. Tang, Schneider. AP News. April, 2022. https://apnews.com/article/covid-health-us-census-bureau-lifestyle-race-and-ethnicity-771f885eff9fc0fc11fd3aafc533267b
“2020 Post-Enumeration Survey”. U.S. Census Bureau. May, 2022. https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/2020-post-enumeration-survey.html
“Arkansas declined to spend money on census, missed over 5% of its residents, report states”. Vrbin. Northwest Arkansas Democrat Gazette. June, 2022. https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2022/jun/27/no-funds-by-state-hampers-census/?news-arkansas
“Mississippi has more people and is most likely more diverse than the 2020 Census reported. Harrison. Mississippi Today. May, 2022. https://mississippitoday.org/2022/05/29/mississippi-census-undercount-population/
